2025 U.S. Tax Legislation Forecast: What to Expect

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2025 U.S. Tax Legislation ForecastAs 2025 unfolds, U.S. tax policy is poised for significant shifts, particularly with a new Republican administration under President Donald Trump. The year ahead will likely see a range of tax reforms, largely driven by the GOP’s objectives and campaign promises. In this article, we’ll explore the major tax policy trends, legislative developments, and administration changes that may shape U.S. tax law in 2025.

The Impact of Supreme Court Decisions

2024 also saw two major Supreme Court decisions with significant tax implications. In the Moore case, the Court ruled narrowly on the issue of wealth taxation, leaving open the possibility of revisiting the question in the future. While wealth tax proposals had gained some traction among Democrats, the Court’s decision, combined with the political climate, suggests that such proposals are unlikely to gain much momentum under the new administration.

The Loper Bright decision, which questioned the deference given to government regulations, could have far-reaching effects on tax policy. The ruling makes it more difficult for agencies like the IRS to issue regulations without clear legislative guidance, potentially leading to more legal challenges to IRS regulations and shifting the balance of power between lawmakers and regulatory agencies.

2025: A New Republican Agenda

With a Republican administration taking office in 2025, tax policy is expected to shift dramatically. President Trump, along with a Republican-controlled Senate and House, will likely push for several key changes to tax law.

One of the primary objectives will be to extend provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that are set to expire. This includes individual tax cuts, corporate rate reductions and changes to the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. The extension of other expiring provisions involving lifetime gift and estate tax exemptions, AMT, child tax credits, and the mortgage interest deduction may also be on the table. Additionally, the GOP is expected to explore new tax cuts, with some lawmakers proposing measures like eliminating taxes on tips, which was promoted during Trump’s election campaign.

On the corporate side, there may be discussions about lowering the effective tax rate through credits and incentives rather than direct reductions to the statutory corporate tax rate. There also could be movement on tax expensing for research and development, as well as other measures to incentivize business investment.

Potential Revenue-Raising Measures

Despite the tax cuts expected to dominate the agenda, there may be some revenue-raising measures included in the GOP’s tax proposals. The focus on reducing deficits could lead to efforts to cut some of the green credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, although these cuts are unlikely to raise significant revenue. There also may be attempts to tighten international tax rules from the TCJA to generate more revenue.

President Trump has also proposed replacing individual income taxes with increases in tariffs, implementing a universal 20 percent tariff across the board, and implementing an additional 50 percent tariff on imports from China.

IRS Funding and Administration Changes

Under the new administration, the IRS is expected to face significant cuts, particularly in its enforcement budget. The $80 billion allocated to the agency in recent years, which was intended to improve taxpayer services and combat tax evasion, is likely to be rolled back. Republicans have expressed strong opposition to the IRS’ expanded powers and are expected to push for a reallocation of those funds toward customer service rather than enforcement.

Additionally, the new administration may replace current IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel, who was appointed during the Biden administration. Trump could nominate a new commissioner, and if this happens, it could spark further debates over the direction of the IRS in the coming years.

Conclusion

2025 promises to be a dynamic year for U.S. tax policy, with significant changes expected under the new administration. Key issues to watch include the fate of the TCJA’s expiring provisions, potential new tax cuts, and ongoing debates over IRS funding and regulations. As the administration works to implement its agenda, there will likely be contentious discussions and compromises on Capitol Hill, setting the stage for a new era of tax policy for the United States.

Dissecting Bookings and Annual Recurring Revenue

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What is Bookings and Annual Recurring RevenueWith the number of Amazon Prime member subscribers growing from 58 million in 2016 to 180 million in 2024, according to Statista, there’s a sustained recurring subscription model that one of America’s most successful retailers has increased more than 200 percent in eight years. Whether it’s a large company such as Amazon or a solopreneur beginning their recurring subscription services, it’s important to first distinguish between overall bookings and recurring revenue; and then to illustrate how businesses can measure these two types of revenue.

Dissecting Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and Bookings

Bookings are assurances of all anticipated earnings (recurring and one-off deals) because the business hasn’t satisfied the terms of the contracted services. Once it’s completed, the booking will turn into actual revenue. This factor is present in all sales deals, regardless of when revenue or cash will be transferred to the business from the customer. Non-recurring revenue includes training, special consulting projects, etc. (things that are one-off).

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is a way to gauge recurring revenue a business projects to earn on a yearly basis. It’s quite common in eCommerce industries – be it subscriptions for food, software, etc. that are billed on a monthly or annual time frame.

How ARR Helps Businesses Analyze Operations

Businesses can determine demand trends, which help forecast recurring revenue. Lenders and investors can see how (in)efficient a company is with its marketing and sales efforts. It gives business owners and management the ability to determine customer retention and growth prospects while it provides internal and external users the ability to estimate a subscription’s worth. Additional insight businesses can gain from this metric include how much new customers add, how much renewals and upgrades impact ARR, and how churn and downgrades impact ARR.

How to Value a Company Using ARR

One common metric is Enterprise Value divided by ARR (EV/ARR), which is similar but important to distinguish from the EV/Revenue ratio. Since the ARR only factors in recurring revenue versus the EV/Revenue, which factors in all revenue regardless of the revenue recurring, the initial ratio provides a better assessment of the recurring revenue only. Assuming a company has an ARR multiple of 7 and its ARR is $15 million, the ARR has an enterprise value of $105 million.

Monthly Versus Yearly Recurring Revenue

While Monthly Recurring Revenue is not an entry on a business’s financial statements, it’s more of a key performance indicator (KPI). It’s not uncommon for companies to include it as part of their earnings releases. If a recurring subscription revenue is done monthly, it’s converted into Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) as follows: MRR x 12 = ARR.

Recording Bookings

When a contract is signed, or an order is placed, it depends on how it’s handled. If the business receives cash prior to completing their monthly or yearly service expectation and say the contract is for $20,000 per month for 12 months, it would be recorded as follows:

Debit: Cash $240,000

Credit: Deferred Revenue $240,000

Since the contract has just been signed, but there’s been no product/service rendered, deferred or unearned, revenue has been created.

For every month that passes, the journal entry will progress as follows:

Debit: Deferred Revenue $20,000

Credit: Revenue $20,000

The deferred revenue account drops from $240,000 to $220,000, assuming the starting deferred revenue balance is even and there’s no deferred revenue.

The following month, the journal entries would be as follows:

Debit: Deferred Revenue $20,000

Credit: Revenue $20,000

This would occur every month until the end of the 12-month period.

Conclusion

When it comes to accounting for revenue, whether it’s booked, fulfilled by the company, or the payment received by the company, along with analyzing the time frame, it’s equally important to be familiar with the type of revenue it is for one to see how the company is performing.

Beefing Up Laws for Illegal Immigrants and Preparing for Future Disasters

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S 5,HR 152,HR 153,HR 164,HR 471, HR 187, HCon Res. 1Laken Riley Act (S 5) – A holdover from the last congressional session, this bill was re-introduced by Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) on Jan. 6. It is similar to a 1996 law, the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, that deports illegal immigrants who are found guilty of serious crimes. This new bill enables the government to detain and deport illegals who are arrested for serious crimes or misdemeanors (such as shoplifting), but they do not have to be charged or found guilty. The legislation passed in the Senate on Jan. 20 and the House on Jan. 22, and it is expected to be the first bill signed by the Trump administration.

Federal Disaster Assistance Coordination Act (HR 152) – This legislation would amend the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 to authorize a new study designed to streamline and consolidate data regarding the collection of preliminary damage assessments. It was introduced by Rep. Mike Ezell (R-MS) on Jan. 3, passed in the House on Jan. 13, and is currently in the Senate.

Post-Disaster Assistance Online Accountability Act (HR 153) – This is a disaster companion bill, also introduced by Rep. Mike Ezell (R-MS) on Jan. 3. It would create an online repository for recipients of Federal disaster assistance to meet specific reporting requirements. The bipartisan bill passed in the House on Jan. 14, and its fate also lies with the Senate.

POWER Act of 2025 (HR 164) – Also known as the Promoting Opportunities to Widen Electrical Resilience Act, this non-controversial bill was passed on Jan. 15 under a House procedure called “suspension of the rules.” It would allow Federal agencies to provide essential assistance for the emergency restoration of power and not restrict utility company recipients from also qualifying for hazard mitigation assistance if necessary. The bill amends the previous Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (1988), which details the process for federal government assistance to state and local governments following a major disaster. The bill was introduced by Rep. Valerie Hoyle (D-OR) on Jan. 3 and currently lies with the Senate.

Fix Our Forests Act (HR 471) – The purpose of this bill is to expedite improvements in forest management activities on National Forest public lands under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management to return resilience to overgrown, fire-prone forested lands. This bipartisan legislation was introduced by Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-AR) on Jan. 16 and passed in the House on Jan. 23. It currently lies with the Senate.

MAPWaters Act of 2025 (HR 187) – This bipartisan bill authorizes the standardization, consolidation, and publication of federal waterways data regarding outdoor recreational uses by the public, as tracked by federal land and water management agencies. The legislation was introduced by Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) on Jan. 3, passed in the House on Jan. 21, and is under consideration in the Senate.

Regarding consent to assemble outside the seat of government (HCon Res. 1) – This concurrent resolution was introduced on Jan. 3 by Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-MN). It is a bipartisan resolution, agreed to by all four majority and minority leaders in both houses, that would allow members of the House and the Senate to assemble at a location outside the District of Columbia if it is in the public interest. The resolution passed in the House on Jan. 3 and currently rests in the Senate.

Rules of the Roth

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Rules of Roth IRAWith a Roth IRA, the owner can make limited contributions each year. In 2025, the limit is $7,000; $8,000 if age 50 or older. Only people who earn less than $150,000 (single filers) or under $236,000 (married filing jointly) can make a full Roth IRA contribution. While contributions do not qualify for a tax deduction, earnings are not taxable once the account has been open for five years. Contributions, which were previously taxed as income, can be withdrawn at any time.

Once you open and contribute to a Roth IRA, the five-year countdown begins before you can take any earnings out tax-free. However, the holding period is actually measured from Jan. 1 of the year you made the first contribution.

For example, if you opened your Roth IRA on Dec. 31, 2024, the holding period backs up to Jan. 1, 2024. Therefore, your holding period is technically only four years instead of five to avoid paying taxes on earnings.

However, it gets even better because you are allowed to make a Roth contribution for the prior tax year up until tax day in April. That means if you open a Roth in April 2025 and designate your contribution for 2024, your holding period is shortened by another four months.

This is why it’s important to open a Roth as soon as possible, even if you cannot contribute a lot of money in the near future. It makes a great strategy for a high school or college student with job earnings to at least open a Roth for future use. While there is no upfront tax deduction, you may withdraw contributions penalty and tax-free at any time – which makes it ideal as both a liquid emergency account as well as long-term savings.

As for withdrawing earnings, the rules are trickier. As far as the IRS is concerned, contributions are withdrawn first and then earnings. Note that when earnings are withdrawn before age 59½, the amount is subject to both taxes and a 10 percent penalty, but there are exceptions that waive the penalty. For example, if your account is less than five years old, you can still withdraw earnings (penalty-free but still subject to taxes) for the following purposes:

  • To help pay for a first-time home purchase (up to $10,000)
  • To pay for college
  • To pay certain emergency expenses
  • To pay for expenses in connection with a federally qualified disaster
  • To pay expenses related to a birth or adoption
  • To pay for unreimbursed medical expenses or health insurance if unemployed
  • If you become disabled or are a survivor of domestic abuse

If your account is older than five years, you can avoid both taxes and the penalty if the funds are used to help pay for a first-time home purchase (up to $10,000) or if you become disabled.

After age 59½, there are no taxes and no penalties for any money withdrawn from a Roth IRA for any reason.

Multiple Roths

The same five-year holding period applies to all the Roths you own, with the clock starting at the first contribution to your first Roth. This means that if five years after the date you open your first Roth, you open a new Roth and contribute a bunch of income, you won’t have to wait another five years to tap those earnings tax-free. This perk does not apply to a Roth 401(k) account, which maintains a separate five-year holding period.

Conversion Benefits

When you convert a traditional IRA or 401(k) to a Roth (assuming your plan allows in-service withdrawals or in-plan conversions), you must pay income taxes in the year the money is converted. However, there are some very good reasons to convert:

  • Tax-Free Income – By converting assets when you’re still working, you can pay the taxes owed with current income, but from that point on, the Roth IRA will grow tax-free. This is particularly helpful in diversifying your tax liability during retirement if you have other income sources (e.g., pension, brokerage account, Social Security).
  • Eliminate RMDs – If you continue working into your 70s, you may continue contributing to your Roth IRA, and assets converted from a 401(k) or traditional IRA are no longer subject to required minimum distributions. This way, your full account balance has the opportunity to continue growing for later retirement and/or for your heirs.

Be aware that converting a taxable retirement account to a Roth IRA begins its own five-year timetable, so convert long before you need to begin withdrawals.

National Security

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National Security, S 3613, HR 5009, HR 2950, S 4367, HR 9668, HR 9716Improving Federal Building Security Act of 2024 (S 3613) – The Federal Protective Service (FPS) contracts security guards to control access to government facilities and screen visitors to detect prohibited items, such as pepper spray and batons. Earlier this year, FPS investigators conducted a covert test at certain federal buildings in which the guards failed to detect prohibited items about 50 percent of the time. In response, Congress passed this bill requiring Facility Security Committees to respond to security recommendations issued by the FPS. It also mandates that the Homeland Security Department submit an unredacted report to Congress regarding FPS surveillance technology recommendations as well as summarize the FPS recommendations that buildings accepted or rejected. However, no additional funding for security is appropriated by the bill, which will sunset five years following enactment. The act was introduced on Jan. 18, 2024, by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). It passed in the Senate on March 23, the House on Dec. 10, and was signed into law on Dec. 17.

Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025 (HR 5009) – This year’s version of the annual funding bill features a 14.5 percent increase in pay for junior enlisted servicemembers, as well as a 4.5 percent pay raise for all other personnel. The legislation also provides cost-of-living allowances per location, improved housing/barracks repair programs, more access to medical and mental health services, and increased employment support for military spouses. The legislation was introduced by Rep. David Joyce (R-OH) on July 27, 2023. This is a bipartisan bill that has passed in both the Senate and the House with various changes. It is currently awaiting signature by the White House for enactment.

Coastal Habitat Conservation Act of 2023 (HR 2950) – Introduced by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA) on April 7, 2023, this bill passed the House on Sept. 24, 2024, the Senate on Nov. 21, and was signed into law on Dec. 11. The legislation empowers the Coastal Program of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to increase efforts to assess, protect, restore and enhance key coastal environments that provide fish and wildlife habitats for certain federal trust species.

Thomas R. Carper Water Resources Development Act of 2024 (S 4367) – This legislation was introduced by Sen. Thomas Carper (D-DE) on May 20, 2024. It passed in the Senate on Aug. 1 and in the House (with changes) on Dec. 10; the final bill is expected to be approved and signed into law by the end of the congressional session. This bipartisan bill is designed to improve the nation’s water resources infrastructure, including ports and harbors, inland waterway navigation, and flood and storm protection; it also strengthens our resilience during natural disasters. The legislation also institutes reforms at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in order to streamline processes and deploy projects faster.

SHIELD Against CCP Act (HR 9668) – Introduced on Sept. 18, 2024, by Rep. Dale Strong (R-AL), this bill would establish a task force working with the Department of Homeland Security. The group’s sole focus would be on countering terrorism, cybersecurity, and border/port security related to threats posed by the Chinese Communist Party. The legislation is in response to recent CCP activities such as stealing intellectual property and technology, threats to economic supply chain security and critical infrastructure, and surveillance activities targeting U.S. defense sites and even American citizens. The bipartisan bill passed in the House on Dec. 10 and is currently in the Senate.

Increasing Baseline Updates Act (HR 9716) – In the first quarter of each year, the Congressional Budget Office provides Congress with an annual baseline 10-year projection of the budget and economy based on the fiscal impact of legislative proposals. Updates are released in Q2 and Q3 to reflect newly enacted laws and economic conditions. This bill would mandate that the executive branch provide critical data to the CBO by February 1 of each year to produce a more accurate annual budget baseline. The bill passed in the House on Dec. 11 and currently lies with the Senate. It was introduced by Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) on Sept. 20, 2024.

How Reporting Might be Less Complex in 2025

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How Reporting Might be Less Complex in 2025A Dec. 3 proposal from FASB’s Accounting Standards Update (ASU) might provide some flexibility for private businesses and select nonprofits. “Financial Instruments – Credit Losses (Topic 326)” looks at measuring credit losses for contract assets and accounts receivable for these entities.

When it comes to determining projected credit losses for current accounts receivables and current contract assets, businesses face immense resource needs and reporting requirements, including for assets acquired prior to the publication dates of financial statements.

With public comments being received through Jan. 17, 2025, industry professionals have reported that when it comes to gauging projected credit losses for current contract assets and current accounts receivable, there’s a massive undertaking and validation necessary for assets collected prior to financial statement issuance dates. Industry professionals argue that being able to factor in collections post-balance sheet date in calculating expected credit losses would reduce the complexity for preparers, whereas, for third parties, including investors and others who utilize financial statements, it would provide them with valuable data.

FASB proposed an amendment to ASC 326 207 to allow private companies and certain not-for-profit entities to employ a more flexible and efficient way to better gauge their projected credit losses for current contract assets and accounts receivable that originate from transaction accounts under ASC 606.

Working with the Private Company Council (PCC) to look at stakeholders’ concerns that estimating projected credit losses can be exorbitant and complicated for financial proceedings, FASB is soliciting comments on whether or not to expand the scope of entities included for ASU standards, along with different asset classes.

Current Criteria

According to ASC 326-20, when expected credit losses are estimated by entities, an entity must evaluate their ability to garner cash flows via the lens of contemporary economic circumstances, rational and documented projections, and past losses. Past losses may need to be fine-tuned to approximate project credit losses if past circumstances change from present conditions or from well-ground estimates and documented projections. Another consideration when formulating credit loss projections is that entities aren’t required to factor in collections obtained post-balance sheet date.  

Proposed Additions

When it comes to the proposed additions, FASB speaks to a practical expedient and an accounting policy election. The practical expedient concerns an entity’s well-grounded, data-dependent projections. If an entity chooses the practical expedient, it would be able to factor in collection activity beyond the balance sheet date when projecting expected credit losses.

Practical Expedient

To formulate projections that are rational and based on verified accounting details, this so-called practical expedient can be chosen by the entity that assumes its present balance sheet conditions will last for the entire projection time frame. Choosing a practical expedient also implies that an entity’s accounting policy will factor in collection activity past its balance sheet date when gauging expected credit losses. Specifically, under 326-20-30-10C for the practical expedient, during the projection time frame, an entity will maintain the exact circumstances of the balance sheet throughout the rational and data-based projection period.

If a business, for example, has determined a particular client is facing monetary challenges, it would account for its client’s financial issues through projections of estimated expected credit losses for said client, even though it has not impacted the business’ historical loss experience or if the business is up to date as of the balance sheet date.

Accounting Policy Election

Per 326-20-30-10E, when a practical expedient from 326-20-30-10C through 30-10D is chosen by entities for their accounting policy election when projecting credit losses, it signals that the entity factors in collection activity after the balance sheet date, but prior to the date of financial statement issuance. If an entity uses one or both of the practical expedient and/or accounting policy elections, disclosure is mandatory.

Conclusion

Lastly, such advice would be administered on a forward-looking basis, and both of these entities (PCC and FASB) will make the ultimate findings and guidelines of the implementation dates once industry professionals’ comments are considered. However, entities will likely be able to utilize these guidelines sooner.

For eligible companies, these standards could provide greater flexibility and the ability to divert resources to more productive allocations.

7 Ways to Start 2025 with Fresh Finances

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7 Ways to Start 2025 with Fresh FinancesHere we are in yet another new year. The obligations and celebrations are over. Chances are, you’ve spent a fair amount over the holidays and might need a plan to help kickstart 2025 with some actionable financial goals. Here are a few ideas.

Create a Budget

This one never gets old. Why? It’s one of the keys to successful budgeting. You can set up a budget for the year that includes essentials, entertainment, and nice-to-haves, aka your Wish Farm. Then place it in your planner or app – there are many good ones out there. In fact, there’s a TikTok trend called loud budgeting, where people openly discuss their financial goals on social media – why they do or don’t want to buy something. If this is your thing and it helps you stay on track, go for it! If not, a good old-fashioned planner works just as well.

Bucket Your Money

This is the next step after the aforementioned. Split your money into categories: food, rent/ mortgage, utilities, medical, entertainment, vacation, etc. Apps can help you parse out these groups. You might also set up separate banking accounts for some of the necessities so you’ll know to leave them alone and not dip into them, tempting as it may be.

Set Up Auto-Drafts

Let’s say you’re saving for your child’s college fund or a down payment on a car. When you create an auto-draft for a certain amount, you’ll never miss that deposit. If you need to tweak the amount during the year, do it. Here’s the bottom line: 1) You’ll learn to live on less, and 2) you’ll be on the way to making your dreams come true.

Look for Savings Deals

Don’t just settle for the interest rate your current bank is offering. There are many options out there to grow your money. But first, do you want to lock into a fixed rate? This can be useful for long-term goals, such as buying a property. Or do you want an easy-to-access account with the ability to withdraw cash for emergencies or short-term needs like birthday or wedding gifts? Shop around.

Cancel Seldom-Used Subscriptions

Scour your bank statement. Do you need all those online magazine subscriptions? How about newsletters you pay for – the ones you rarely read? Purge your subscriptions, then see how much you’ll save. If you’re so inclined, you could put these dollars toward a gym membership. January is when all the specials appear: zero joining fees, if not a seriously cut rate.

Start a Savings Challenge

Try putting away a small amount every month. Get in the habit of emptying your pockets or coin purse. Safeguard your coins in a mason jar, and then transfer them monthly into your savings account. The next month, increase how much you contribute. Pennies, nickels, dimes, and quarters add up! After a year, you might be surprised how much you’ve saved.

Decide on Goals

These can be small or large. It’s up to you. Spend some time thinking about what’s important. Do you want to remodel your house? Contribute to a beloved charity or cause? One resource you might want to consider setting up is an emergency spending pot. This is essential and sometimes overlooked. Regardless of what you decide, figure out your parameters: how much to set aside, how often, and by when. Having financial targets gives you something to look forward to. Best of all, when you achieve your goal, it’s an awesome feeling.

More often than not, New Year’s resolutions center on getting physically fit. But if you stay the course with your finances, you’ll most definitely be, wait for it … fiscally fit!

Sources

10 things you can do right now to start 2025 with fresh finances

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/10-things-you-can-do-right-now-to-start-2025-with-fresh-finances/ar-AA1vnhyg